* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 47 46 40 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 47 46 40 33 27 20 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 9 11 15 18 22 33 38 41 42 41 SHEAR DIR 169 165 191 221 226 271 254 243 235 252 247 254 251 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 151 151 144 137 132 127 122 118 115 108 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 47 47 49 46 45 47 45 48 41 42 33 30 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 10 6 11 0 5 850 MB VORT -18 -24 -20 -22 -34 -59 -58 -35 -7 -2 -5 -20 -25 LAND (KM) 671 677 704 729 751 835 871 882 882 857 788 718 634 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.3 106.6 107.8 109.0 111.2 113.3 115.0 116.1 116.6 116.7 116.6 116.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 16. 12. 6. 0. -7. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 21. 15. 8. 2. -5. -12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 45.1% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)