* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * CHRIS 11/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 34 33 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 34 30 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 52 49 47 45 42 35 39 47 36 38 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 297 295 298 302 275 265 247 243 230 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 146 146 148 148 148 142 134 128 128 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.3 -55.6 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 11 10 11 9 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 40 37 29 24 21 17 20 19 22 23 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 -24 -17 -29 2 -3 -5 -8 6 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -27 -23 -37 -43 -30 -28 -30 -13 -27 -35 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 175 120 33 -54 89 192 286 317 199 -14 -103 76 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 22.6 22.2 21.8 21.3 20.7 20.1 19.5 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.9 77.7 79.3 80.6 81.9 83.6 85.6 87.6 89.6 91.3 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 42 44 9999 63 70 69 63 41 37 9999 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 846 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -25. -32. -38. -44. -49. -53. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -27. -35. -41. -45. -50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) CHRIS 11/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 47.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 55.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 2.94 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)