* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 10 12 16 19 27 31 39 41 44 44 43 SHEAR DIR 222 249 239 249 271 258 265 263 264 258 272 278 283 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 147 143 136 131 125 121 117 115 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 500-300 MB RH 46 45 46 48 47 46 48 39 37 28 30 31 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 -15 0 -10 5 0 -22 850 MB VORT -33 -44 -51 -60 -75 -65 -59 -44 -39 -31 -36 -34 -43 LAND (KM) 690 736 781 838 910 928 992 1034 1047 1054 1067 1082 1113 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.1 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.2 109.6 110.9 112.1 114.5 116.5 117.9 118.7 119.3 119.7 119.9 120.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 551 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 8. 2. -5. -12. -18. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 10. 3. -4. -10. -16. -23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.43 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.38 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 3.28 Prob of RI= 14.3% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)