* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 38 36 32 29 28 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 38 36 32 29 28 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 13 16 15 21 24 29 30 31 27 24 23 SHEAR DIR 242 240 259 264 262 263 247 248 250 263 267 257 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 144 141 139 138 136 135 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 48 49 47 48 48 45 41 40 38 43 39 38 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 0 -2 0 850 MB VORT -17 -20 -36 -45 -47 -41 -19 -1 23 22 17 13 3 LAND (KM) 764 816 892 972 997 1087 1193 1321 1418 1537 1692 1882 2069 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.1 14.9 14.4 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.8 111.2 112.4 113.6 115.8 117.7 119.3 121.0 122.8 124.6 126.5 128.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 566 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.37 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 3.26 Prob of RI= 14.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)