* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 31 29 29 30 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 31 29 29 30 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 15 18 22 28 32 34 34 29 25 24 25 SHEAR DIR 272 290 282 271 263 251 262 272 275 274 281 276 281 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 139 137 136 135 132 131 132 133 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 500-300 MB RH 48 47 43 43 40 37 39 38 38 40 43 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 -1 -3 -9 -4 -10 -5 -10 -3 2 -14 850 MB VORT -36 -45 -49 -49 -48 -35 -8 17 19 23 13 0 -16 LAND (KM) 876 944 958 979 1011 1104 1198 1298 1404 1544 1731 1948 2136 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.2 14.8 14.3 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.3 123.0 125.0 127.2 129.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 2.71 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)