* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * NONAME 11/11/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 29 32 34 34 32 26 22 16 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 31 31 28 23 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 16 17 16 18 14 19 23 29 28 30 31 SHEAR DIR 201 186 198 201 192 177 174 163 162 154 152 156 162 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 141 139 137 138 141 145 148 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -52.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 66 63 64 63 63 61 51 49 51 47 46 47 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 2 1 -1 2 0 1 1 6 -1 -10 2 850 MB VORT 100 94 94 101 98 102 99 102 93 82 59 43 20 LAND (KM) -45 -17 -22 -21 -63 -43 -18 67 191 245 276 322 343 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.7 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.5 81.9 82.4 82.9 83.8 85.1 86.5 87.9 89.1 90.1 91.3 92.6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 34 9999 9999 9999 9999 9 6 9 11 6 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 539 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 6. 2. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 6. 2. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 11/11/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 4.32 Prob of RI= 15.6% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)