* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * NONAME 11/11/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 39 45 50 53 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 30 34 42 47 53 55 58 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 17 17 15 13 6 12 9 15 8 15 19 SHEAR DIR 200 214 213 225 225 207 201 185 129 127 140 136 132 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 151 152 155 155 155 154 152 151 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 64 65 65 66 63 64 63 62 61 66 63 69 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 850 MB VORT 87 86 91 89 88 90 80 81 86 89 88 103 116 LAND (KM) -38 -12 14 36 59 119 196 236 276 264 249 236 225 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.5 14.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.7 80.9 81.0 81.0 81.1 81.1 81.0 81.0 81.1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 39 40 40 42 49 50 48 42 35 33 43 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 543 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 11/11/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)