* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NONAME 11/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 37 36 33 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 28 27 30 29 26 20 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 17 16 13 15 18 25 26 30 30 33 31 SHEAR DIR 238 230 210 205 216 186 169 158 159 174 191 197 196 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 149 148 142 137 139 143 148 152 151 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 66 65 68 62 61 57 59 59 56 55 58 53 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 5 5 6 15 6 0 850 MB VORT 83 77 84 93 93 89 88 89 72 59 39 -20 -63 LAND (KM) 24 79 70 63 36 -58 -23 58 149 187 278 351 445 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.4 81.9 82.5 83.1 84.4 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 91.2 92.8 94.6 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 44 41 38 9999 9999 7 9 11 6 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 503 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 41 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -19. -26. -32. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 13. 10. 4. -3. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 12. 11. 8. 2. -4. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 11/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)