* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NONAME 11/12/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 24 28 33 34 38 41 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 24 28 33 34 38 41 47 49 SHEAR (KTS) 32 26 21 19 17 19 23 21 23 13 15 3 6 SHEAR DIR 277 282 279 273 279 254 265 257 281 278 310 301 345 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 162 162 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 11 9 11 9 500-300 MB RH 66 65 67 71 71 73 70 63 57 53 49 43 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 2 4 3 2 0 0 -2 3 0 -3 -4 850 MB VORT -1 21 38 38 33 58 66 81 81 91 92 84 78 LAND (KM) 473 428 317 221 168 244 322 376 409 379 321 231 148 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.1 58.2 59.3 60.4 62.3 63.7 64.8 66.0 67.1 68.2 69.4 70.7 HEAT CONTENT 51 58 70 76 65 78 85 91 78 81 80 77 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 674 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 12. 13. 17. 20. 26. 30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 14. 18. 21. 27. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 11/12/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)