* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NONAME 11/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 22 25 30 35 37 40 44 50 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 22 25 30 35 37 40 44 50 53 SHEAR (KTS) 27 22 19 18 14 20 18 22 18 17 13 10 7 SHEAR DIR 282 278 273 278 275 258 272 267 292 285 326 312 360 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 9 10 9 12 9 11 9 11 500-300 MB RH 64 67 71 73 70 75 65 63 59 56 50 48 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 3 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 8 9 0 -4 850 MB VORT 22 39 38 31 42 61 75 78 82 95 95 94 80 LAND (KM) 389 300 221 176 177 244 311 361 407 400 379 311 239 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.4 59.3 60.2 61.0 62.5 63.7 64.6 65.4 66.2 66.8 67.5 68.3 HEAT CONTENT 62 72 76 76 64 80 84 84 89 86 82 80 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 811 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 16. 19. 23. 29. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 17. 20. 24. 30. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NONAME 11/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 4.31 Prob of RI= 15.5% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)