* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/12/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 54 57 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 54 57 58 56 52 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 16 11 8 11 7 11 10 14 14 22 21 SHEAR DIR 235 222 224 237 205 187 194 163 137 163 162 177 190 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 155 155 155 154 152 151 149 149 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 7 7 8 7 7 500-300 MB RH 62 63 61 61 59 55 58 61 62 57 59 54 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 850 MB VORT 62 70 76 70 63 66 81 81 81 67 76 69 41 LAND (KM) 66 82 98 124 150 203 255 240 217 199 175 172 161 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.9 80.9 80.9 80.9 81.1 81.3 81.4 81.5 81.6 81.6 81.6 81.7 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 47 49 48 49 41 34 30 33 39 46 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 493 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 34. 32. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 31. 27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/12/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.63 Prob of RI= 22.6% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)