* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/13/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 40 42 44 48 51 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 40 42 44 48 51 53 SHEAR (KTS) 23 20 18 16 19 22 24 23 19 18 14 15 9 SHEAR DIR 277 278 275 266 249 261 256 277 268 295 271 298 253 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 164 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 11 9 11 9 10 500-300 MB RH 66 68 70 71 71 68 63 60 57 55 50 52 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 3 3 1 2 0 -1 3 7 8 2 -2 850 MB VORT 37 39 35 45 54 68 77 79 89 91 92 91 68 LAND (KM) 322 253 212 216 252 311 366 407 368 379 337 214 119 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.7 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.2 60.1 60.9 61.7 62.9 63.8 64.7 65.6 66.5 67.6 68.9 70.4 HEAT CONTENT 72 75 75 66 72 89 91 92 90 80 79 70 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 22. 26. 30. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 20. 22. 24. 28. 31. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/13/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 142.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 4.45 Prob of RI= 18.2% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)