* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/13/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 36 36 35 34 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 36 36 35 34 31 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 25 23 22 26 29 26 38 30 29 25 23 15 17 SHEAR DIR 276 276 266 252 255 265 266 277 281 303 301 307 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 162 164 164 164 164 162 160 160 162 165 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 500-300 MB RH 64 67 71 72 73 68 61 55 51 44 34 33 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 2 5 0 2 1 6 -3 -13 -6 0 850 MB VORT 27 24 35 46 53 68 61 74 74 73 76 66 73 LAND (KM) 343 307 296 310 345 455 399 277 197 163 227 267 274 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.1 15.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.1 59.8 60.5 61.2 62.3 63.2 64.2 65.1 66.3 68.0 70.0 72.0 HEAT CONTENT 69 74 77 67 72 86 85 93 90 74 79 102 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 563 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -31. -33. -33. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/13/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.60 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 27.5% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)