* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/13/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 42 42 44 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 42 42 44 43 44 46 SHEAR (KTS) 25 21 24 30 26 27 32 26 27 16 16 8 7 SHEAR DIR 282 277 259 256 266 259 270 268 292 289 307 266 281 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 164 164 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 8 500-300 MB RH 65 64 69 74 72 65 60 55 52 50 49 38 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 3 3 2 4 0 0 3 -1 -3 -3 0 850 MB VORT 28 36 48 61 76 73 77 95 95 99 104 96 116 LAND (KM) 313 253 231 267 322 411 389 315 300 335 267 161 11 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.2 15.0 14.3 13.5 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.5 60.4 61.2 62.0 63.1 64.2 65.4 66.6 67.7 69.0 70.4 71.7 HEAT CONTENT 72 71 72 68 84 95 103 92 81 85 79 71 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 509 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. -27. -25. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 18. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 19. 18. 19. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/13/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 137.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.74 Prob of RI= 27.0% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)