* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 45 45 41 36 31 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 45 45 33 32 26 19 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 14 13 11 12 12 19 24 32 31 35 34 SHEAR DIR 235 220 208 216 203 162 126 136 140 151 151 160 164 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 160 159 155 152 146 139 137 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 8 10 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 63 62 63 61 55 54 59 62 62 58 56 51 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 3 3 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 1 20 850 MB VORT 67 63 65 68 61 79 81 68 68 66 66 47 34 LAND (KM) 63 127 174 141 119 119 195 118 21 -100 48 218 339 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.7 77.3 78.0 78.6 79.9 81.1 82.4 83.6 84.8 86.3 87.9 89.5 HEAT CONTENT 73 71 68 61 56 54 49 44 29 9999 6 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -14. -21. -29. -34. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 21. 21. 18. 12. 6. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 20. 20. 16. 11. 6. -2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 29.1% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)