* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/13/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 45 50 56 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 45 50 56 60 60 SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 22 24 22 23 18 17 11 8 4 5 10 SHEAR DIR 271 262 264 269 267 267 292 290 328 307 10 177 133 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 11 9 11 8 10 500-300 MB RH 67 70 72 70 66 64 58 56 54 56 47 47 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 4 2 2 -3 0 2 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 59 62 70 79 78 87 86 90 86 89 72 58 37 LAND (KM) 205 222 233 261 296 348 367 318 252 189 119 93 149 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.4 63.2 63.9 64.6 65.6 66.7 67.8 68.9 70.1 71.3 72.3 73.2 HEAT CONTENT 63 74 78 76 70 75 79 80 76 75 81 102 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 730 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 25. 31. 35. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/13/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 4.21 Prob of RI= 14.3% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)