* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 54 59 62 64 66 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 54 59 62 64 46 35 SHEAR (KTS) 26 27 22 19 22 23 15 14 5 7 9 8 20 SHEAR DIR 266 268 275 267 262 280 272 311 287 360 122 104 140 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 11 10 9 10 9 11 9 10 8 11 500-300 MB RH 76 79 77 70 68 57 59 55 52 45 46 42 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 850 MB VORT 63 72 77 76 80 77 95 87 84 73 59 45 28 LAND (KM) 277 305 333 363 400 400 378 312 232 135 9 -38 -45 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.3 12.3 11.3 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 63.1 63.8 64.4 64.9 65.9 67.0 68.2 69.1 70.2 71.2 72.4 73.4 HEAT CONTENT 81 90 87 87 91 82 83 80 74 66 62 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 686 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.49 Prob of RI= 19.1% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)