* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/14/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 43 46 44 42 38 33 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 43 46 44 32 31 26 20 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 10 9 10 8 21 20 29 26 30 31 34 SHEAR DIR 225 217 221 211 176 123 126 125 135 146 147 155 162 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 160 160 160 157 155 151 146 138 138 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 9 6 7 6 7 7 7 5 6 500-300 MB RH 65 61 60 56 58 62 60 66 65 64 62 55 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 -6 0 -2 -3 0 4 850 MB VORT 72 75 73 74 77 89 75 70 82 74 70 60 45 LAND (KM) 111 176 126 116 107 150 193 124 15 -89 37 159 248 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.2 77.9 78.5 79.1 80.3 81.4 82.6 83.7 85.0 86.4 87.8 89.3 HEAT CONTENT 71 69 62 56 56 52 48 38 23 9999 6 9 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. -31. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 22. 21. 19. 14. 9. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 21. 19. 17. 13. 8. 1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/14/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 27.3% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)