* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 45 48 47 45 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 42 45 48 47 45 41 SHEAR (KTS) 32 28 28 33 33 28 25 19 14 10 18 22 28 SHEAR DIR 266 274 267 259 270 284 286 310 297 262 227 230 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 162 162 162 162 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 500-300 MB RH 78 76 71 61 59 49 48 45 42 42 46 50 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 3 0 0 0 3 -8 -3 0 1 0 1 850 MB VORT 57 64 59 68 71 75 73 68 68 63 69 61 59 LAND (KM) 322 377 406 335 277 244 250 196 237 248 215 204 293 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.7 64.5 65.3 66.0 67.5 69.2 70.9 72.6 74.2 75.8 77.6 79.5 HEAT CONTENT 90 93 95 97 83 79 87 86 109 107 95 119 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -21. -23. -25. -28. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 17. 15. 11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 37.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.01 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 13.4% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)