* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 41 45 50 51 52 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 41 45 50 51 52 49 SHEAR (KTS) 30 25 25 28 31 27 25 14 12 9 16 16 22 SHEAR DIR 279 277 265 273 278 281 308 310 313 245 244 212 213 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 162 160 160 162 164 164 162 162 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 8 6 500-300 MB RH 78 73 70 66 56 49 45 46 45 43 47 50 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 7 2 -3 -2 8 -3 -6 -2 1 3 5 7 850 MB VORT 63 65 68 68 72 70 74 65 76 77 73 64 61 LAND (KM) 344 372 414 361 300 270 256 252 244 237 248 263 316 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.8 15.8 15.5 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.2 65.0 65.8 66.6 68.3 70.4 72.3 73.9 75.4 76.8 78.3 79.9 HEAT CONTENT 92 90 93 85 81 80 92 106 110 94 112 114 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 21. 22. 19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 36.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 3.94 Prob of RI= 11.0% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)