* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 49 52 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 49 52 55 54 52 SHEAR (KTS) 29 29 29 30 23 24 19 13 8 14 13 18 20 SHEAR DIR 276 271 277 283 287 287 323 304 292 227 223 197 199 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 160 160 162 164 164 164 162 159 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 10 9 11 9 10 8 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 74 73 66 60 54 48 46 47 46 50 62 67 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 1 3 0 -4 -2 0 3 8 2 2 850 MB VORT 54 61 63 63 61 65 62 63 75 79 85 71 72 LAND (KM) 366 418 366 327 311 322 255 293 300 263 279 341 303 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 65.0 65.8 66.7 67.6 69.5 71.5 73.3 74.9 76.6 78.5 79.7 80.4 HEAT CONTENT 82 86 80 78 78 88 97 110 106 106 114 86 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 24. 22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/14/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)