* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 41 44 46 46 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 41 44 46 46 44 40 SHEAR (KTS) 33 34 32 27 27 27 16 15 14 17 23 23 27 SHEAR DIR 274 280 281 278 274 302 301 297 235 231 214 214 201 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 160 160 162 164 164 162 162 157 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 10 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 69 65 65 57 54 46 46 44 48 58 57 63 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 4 2 2 3 -9 -2 4 6 7 3 0 850 MB VORT 57 56 58 61 69 67 66 70 70 73 65 56 51 LAND (KM) 416 373 336 315 315 266 231 277 261 246 280 347 296 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.6 66.4 67.3 68.2 70.2 72.0 73.8 75.7 77.5 79.0 80.0 80.5 HEAT CONTENT 86 82 78 79 81 93 107 111 94 125 110 76 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 625 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -21. -24. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 16. 14. 10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 11.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)