* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 50 54 54 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 50 54 54 52 47 SHEAR (KTS) 33 33 26 27 27 19 12 6 11 12 19 19 28 SHEAR DIR 274 279 280 274 282 311 300 280 237 206 192 175 177 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 162 164 164 164 162 159 152 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 8 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 71 67 62 57 50 45 51 52 57 65 70 67 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 -1 -11 -2 0 4 4 2 2 0 850 MB VORT 63 67 64 66 66 68 67 82 90 90 84 69 62 LAND (KM) 389 362 348 352 339 267 322 309 278 311 343 236 153 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.5 67.3 68.3 69.3 71.6 73.6 75.5 77.3 78.8 80.0 81.0 81.8 HEAT CONTENT 80 75 78 82 87 99 112 98 125 114 76 60 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 20. 20. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 24. 22. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.22 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)