* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 42 49 54 57 56 53 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 35 42 49 54 57 56 53 48 SHEAR (KTS) 31 28 23 25 24 14 9 7 11 15 22 25 28 SHEAR DIR 280 284 274 282 296 304 315 222 215 206 206 199 210 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 164 165 164 162 157 152 149 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -52.8 -54.1 -53.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 10 8 9 7 8 6 6 5 500-300 MB RH 66 57 58 51 52 49 52 52 58 60 62 63 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 -2 -1 -2 -4 -7 -2 2 4 3 3 4 10 850 MB VORT 49 58 63 57 53 60 80 74 83 81 65 53 46 LAND (KM) 357 322 277 266 245 281 346 311 340 322 236 183 174 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 73.0 75.3 77.3 79.0 80.2 81.0 81.5 81.8 HEAT CONTENT 77 76 75 85 91 109 103 123 114 70 56 59 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 634 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 20. 23. 23. 21. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 26. 23. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 4.01 Prob of RI= 11.9% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)