* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 51 53 54 51 47 41 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 51 53 54 51 47 41 SHEAR (KTS) 31 27 26 23 21 16 11 11 13 24 26 33 34 SHEAR DIR 285 283 288 302 310 293 266 224 204 196 198 193 201 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 164 165 164 162 159 152 149 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 10 9 9 7 8 5 6 4 4 500-300 MB RH 58 57 52 49 47 48 49 56 67 66 61 62 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 2 2 0 4 10 5 850 MB VORT 57 62 57 56 62 74 83 80 92 89 69 72 56 LAND (KM) 336 301 291 268 290 322 271 279 335 229 177 168 192 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.4 70.4 71.5 72.5 74.6 76.7 78.5 80.1 81.1 81.6 81.8 81.9 HEAT CONTENT 80 83 92 96 106 110 110 114 74 64 56 48 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 697 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 19. 20. 19. 15. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 24. 24. 22. 17. 11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.74 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 12.9% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)