* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 42 44 43 40 34 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 42 35 30 28 27 21 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 11 11 14 18 24 22 26 25 31 29 35 34 SHEAR DIR 101 122 115 104 97 117 120 121 119 140 149 167 174 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 151 149 145 141 138 135 134 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 500-300 MB RH 61 61 61 64 65 65 63 59 58 54 50 44 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 0 13 15 0 -2 850 MB VORT 72 83 91 99 97 113 119 104 95 87 82 77 69 LAND (KM) 123 109 150 156 107 45 -45 -36 -3 32 80 129 226 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.3 81.9 82.8 83.8 84.5 85.0 85.5 86.0 86.5 87.3 HEAT CONTENT 55 51 47 45 42 36 9999 9999 10 8 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -23. -30. -37. -42. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 17. 15. 10. 3. -4. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 18. 15. 9. 2. -6. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.91 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 5.24 Prob of RI= 44.8% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)