* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * GROSS 11/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 47 47 51 52 51 50 59 60 66 65 64 68 66 SHEAR DIR 272 270 275 275 271 267 279 278 279 275 272 260 260 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 139 136 133 130 125 120 114 111 108 101 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.5 -56.0 -56.5 -56.1 -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 27 30 33 37 37 37 34 42 48 53 51 64 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 -18 -18 14 8 3 5 0 11 3 10 9 16 850 MB VORT -87 -79 -68 -73 -79 -72 -52 -63 -65 -61 -63 -51 -47 LAND (KM) 722 766 813 828 828 862 915 942 925 885 830 776 633 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.3 113.0 114.5 116.0 117.1 117.9 118.3 118.1 117.9 117.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -57 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -25. -36. -46. -53. -58. -65. -71. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -26. -37. -46. -53. -62. -70. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -31. -39. -46. -56. -67. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GROSS 11/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 49.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.95 Scaled RI index= 2.70 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)