* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 44 51 57 57 55 51 46 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 44 51 57 57 55 51 46 38 SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 17 16 12 9 12 15 21 24 32 38 43 SHEAR DIR 293 298 306 310 301 290 222 211 193 197 200 210 202 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 164 162 159 152 148 145 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.5 -53.2 -54.1 -53.4 -54.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 55 50 51 49 52 48 53 68 68 67 60 59 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -7 -8 -3 0 4 2 4 3 5 8 0 850 MB VORT 58 52 50 61 77 75 75 70 70 62 45 36 36 LAND (KM) 303 280 267 306 334 277 283 303 190 150 177 182 165 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.8 71.9 73.0 74.1 76.3 78.6 80.4 81.5 82.0 82.0 82.3 82.8 HEAT CONTENT 85 94 101 109 115 99 113 67 62 37 48 46 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 701 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 22. 23. 22. 19. 15. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 27. 27. 25. 21. 16. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 4.47 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)