* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 29 36 43 50 51 52 51 48 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 29 36 43 50 51 52 51 48 41 SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 17 15 14 9 12 12 21 23 29 32 42 SHEAR DIR 291 307 306 297 297 257 223 232 208 209 198 200 206 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 164 164 162 157 151 148 148 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 8 8 6 7 6 6 4 500-300 MB RH 58 50 47 50 49 50 56 63 66 62 63 59 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -7 -10 -4 -2 2 2 7 2 5 4 13 2 850 MB VORT 52 50 65 83 87 82 85 85 69 52 49 36 25 LAND (KM) 273 262 301 340 328 268 310 302 219 194 237 249 239 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.2 77.5 79.2 80.4 81.2 81.5 81.3 81.3 81.5 HEAT CONTENT 93 100 109 115 105 125 103 66 64 63 69 69 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 667 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 22. 24. 23. 21. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 26. 27. 26. 23. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 139.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 13.3% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)