* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 47 46 42 35 29 21 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 31 28 27 29 25 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 14 16 17 16 19 18 25 29 37 33 36 SHEAR DIR 113 102 109 125 138 130 133 120 135 140 162 170 166 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 148 146 143 138 135 134 135 137 138 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 6 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 65 63 63 61 66 67 64 65 64 52 48 43 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 5 0 21 -4 4 850 MB VORT 94 105 101 112 117 115 114 123 101 97 79 67 47 LAND (KM) 188 234 194 130 58 -79 -46 -8 45 114 206 296 385 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.0 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.1 81.9 82.6 83.3 84.6 85.6 86.0 86.4 87.1 87.9 88.6 89.2 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 40 34 33 9999 9999 3 5 7 8 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -37. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 21. 21. 17. 11. 5. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 22. 21. 17. 10. 4. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.92 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.55 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 4.96 Prob of RI= 35.3% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)