* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 41 49 54 55 52 56 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 41 49 54 41 40 43 46 45 SHEAR (KTS) 22 15 8 7 6 5 11 16 24 34 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 330 312 310 293 188 203 183 190 178 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 162 157 148 142 139 137 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 7 8 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 56 52 56 56 58 59 69 67 61 49 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -7 -1 -1 0 3 2 2 4 11 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 75 88 102 106 102 94 91 85 74 80 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 364 357 344 333 369 214 28 -33 29 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.1 79.2 81.2 83.2 85.0 86.6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 109 112 102 99 115 103 59 17 9999 42 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 698 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 28. 27. 30. 33. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 4. 8. 16. 24. 29. 30. 27. 31. 34. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.34 Prob of RI= 15.9% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)