* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 43 42 38 33 28 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 18 17 14 15 14 21 24 30 32 35 36 SHEAR DIR 83 106 121 133 133 126 123 127 141 147 170 176 173 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 145 143 139 137 135 135 135 134 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 500-300 MB RH 65 64 64 67 70 67 66 61 57 47 41 36 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -1 1 2 1 -2 -2 3 1 10 -1 0 850 MB VORT 97 98 108 122 117 104 110 105 96 85 86 83 68 LAND (KM) 237 270 193 125 58 -73 -163 -149 -134 -119 -103 -80 -25 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.4 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.2 81.9 82.5 83.1 84.3 85.1 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.0 86.1 86.3 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 36 34 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 624 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 14. 9. 4. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 17. 13. 8. 3. -5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.47 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)