* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 45 46 45 39 34 27 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 13 12 13 16 14 24 26 37 38 44 37 SHEAR DIR 108 127 138 151 149 158 145 167 168 176 190 197 199 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 141 139 137 137 138 138 139 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 500-300 MB RH 66 70 72 75 73 69 63 55 45 41 37 38 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 4 5 850 MB VORT 100 100 105 114 109 99 103 84 60 60 39 37 28 LAND (KM) 267 166 65 -16 -97 -189 -135 -113 -122 -102 -94 -111 -133 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.1 82.9 83.7 84.4 85.8 86.6 87.1 87.4 87.7 87.9 88.1 88.3 HEAT CONTENT 40 35 37 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 105 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -18. -26. -32. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 20. 15. 10. 3. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 21. 20. 14. 9. 2. -6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 20.9% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)