* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * EPTEST 11/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 36 31 25 24 24 21 15 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 36 31 25 24 24 21 15 SHEAR (KTS) 43 44 48 50 50 47 44 48 46 35 33 38 36 SHEAR DIR 260 264 266 269 268 261 258 265 279 277 274 285 302 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 152 150 145 142 142 146 150 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 36 33 37 39 37 40 41 42 28 26 27 27 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 8 3 -36 -7 8 -2 -18 -4 0 3 -11 -2 850 MB VORT -60 -64 -67 -78 -91 -93 -92 -78 -72 -56 -53 -40 -49 LAND (KM) 411 446 482 493 522 558 576 576 532 521 546 561 580 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.3 16.9 16.2 15.6 15.2 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.1 107.1 107.9 108.7 109.6 110.1 110.1 109.3 108.6 108.3 108.0 108.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -30. -38. -40. -40. -42. -43. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -4. -10. -11. -11. -14. -20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EPTEST 11/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 47.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 2.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 3.24 Prob of RI= 13.5% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)