* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 47 48 47 42 36 29 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 22 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 13 13 12 18 22 28 35 40 39 38 SHEAR DIR 128 124 142 156 153 162 159 184 180 189 196 204 194 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 141 139 138 138 138 138 138 138 141 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -53.6 -53.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 500-300 MB RH 68 70 72 71 73 68 60 53 46 43 44 46 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -2 -2 3 2 -4 -6 850 MB VORT 99 101 107 104 97 95 97 69 63 52 45 33 4 LAND (KM) 174 106 43 -16 -75 -161 -148 -104 -71 -38 4 38 164 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.6 83.1 83.7 84.2 85.0 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.4 84.6 82.9 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 34 30 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 44 46 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 547 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 117 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -18. -24. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 22. 22. 18. 12. 6. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 22. 23. 22. 17. 11. 4. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.61 Prob of RI= 22.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)