* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 36 35 33 29 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 14 20 17 22 23 30 32 35 41 48 46 SHEAR DIR 136 151 156 163 160 165 178 174 187 190 198 197 203 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 137 137 138 141 142 145 146 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 2 500-300 MB RH 73 71 70 66 65 55 44 36 33 27 28 27 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 -2 15 -4 -7 2 0 850 MB VORT 110 108 100 99 97 106 74 60 45 31 34 -14 -34 LAND (KM) 32 -37 -108 -167 -213 -169 -148 -115 -80 -98 -118 -134 -139 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.9 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.6 87.3 87.9 88.4 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.0 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 512 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -21. -29. -37. -44. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. -1. -10. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 4. -2. -11. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)