* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 33 33 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 26 29 25 26 23 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 16 16 16 29 30 37 41 51 51 59 54 SHEAR DIR 148 169 175 175 184 201 203 208 219 218 229 236 255 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 138 137 138 141 142 139 142 143 143 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 71 73 67 68 63 56 47 38 35 31 29 27 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 2 2 2 9 2 3 -2 3 9 11 7 850 MB VORT 101 90 82 74 81 74 32 11 -5 -1 -11 2 16 LAND (KM) 32 -54 -140 -181 -128 -49 46 -33 -10 161 88 363 951 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.9 18.0 19.4 21.2 23.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 84.0 84.8 85.6 86.3 87.4 88.2 88.6 88.3 85.9 80.8 73.6 65.4 HEAT CONTENT 33 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 45 9999 33 47 59 35 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 77 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -26. -33. -39. -44. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 1. -6. -13. -20. -27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 0. -8. -14. -21. -29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.17 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.17 Prob of RI= 13.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)