* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 36 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 25 25 28 32 38 40 44 46 48 56 58 SHEAR DIR 191 188 190 189 195 207 210 220 226 231 239 259 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.6 28.1 27.4 27.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 138 139 142 142 138 137 143 134 134 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.9 -54.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -54.9 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 6 5 6 4 3 500-300 MB RH 67 60 58 51 52 43 36 33 30 35 29 36 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 2 1 -4 3 2 -1 7 13 18 -11 -2 850 MB VORT 65 54 65 77 65 19 30 -8 2 -4 15 -6 -18 LAND (KM) 48 74 108 87 23 -57 -106 -84 -14 100 67 634 1241 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.3 18.1 19.3 20.9 22.9 25.7 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.8 86.8 87.4 88.0 88.8 89.2 89.0 87.6 84.2 78.8 72.0 64.2 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 36 38 45 9999 9999 9999 36 62 33 17 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 107 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -22. -30. -35. -41. -45. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -5. -11. -14. -20. -25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 8. 2. -4. -11. -15. -21. -27. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.45 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.3% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)