* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 11/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 33 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 31 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 14 16 20 27 36 40 45 53 52 61 52 SHEAR DIR 160 162 161 174 187 199 210 220 226 235 240 259 262 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 138 137 137 138 138 138 137 131 120 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 6 5 5 3 2 500-300 MB RH 68 61 61 61 59 49 39 36 33 35 36 41 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 3 6 5 0 1 15 19 10 41 850 MB VORT 90 85 80 90 93 45 33 -5 -5 23 54 43 59 LAND (KM) -21 -95 -143 -87 -31 76 95 20 89 0 247 859 1052 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.4 20.0 22.2 25.0 28.4 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.4 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.8 87.3 87.4 86.5 83.6 77.9 71.4 65.1 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 39 24 33 45 46 19 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 478 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -25. -30. -35. -38. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 0. -6. -10. -16. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 0. -6. -10. -16. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.07 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.07 Prob of RI= 12.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)