* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 32 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 24 26 34 35 35 45 47 54 61 73 76 68 SHEAR DIR 186 190 191 200 208 209 211 230 233 244 252 255 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 27.2 26.0 24.8 23.5 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 139 141 139 134 128 132 119 109 100 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -54.5 -55.1 -56.6 -57.7 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 61 63 56 54 49 38 37 39 49 56 69 71 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 0 2 4 5 19 14 38 25 11 53 84 850 MB VORT 59 64 78 79 55 31 0 -5 37 93 82 149 193 LAND (KM) 66 94 112 53 -21 -127 -115 -88 66 -4 608 681 226 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.8 22.1 25.2 29.7 35.5 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.0 87.0 87.7 88.4 89.4 90.0 89.7 87.0 80.9 74.0 68.3 64.2 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 35 40 9999 9999 9999 9999 26 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 130 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -14. -23. -31. -38. -43. -45. -45. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -12. -19. -24. -26. -27. -26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -10. -18. -25. -27. -29. -28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.90 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.64 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.0% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)