* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 31 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 30 34 34 41 46 48 60 66 72 67 47 SHEAR DIR 189 188 198 205 215 204 223 231 239 239 239 220 199 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.8 27.2 25.8 25.2 19.9 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 139 141 139 132 127 132 117 112 84 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -55.4 -55.9 -54.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 63 60 54 50 45 39 37 45 51 58 61 58 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 7 12 7 20 27 31 25 15 38 5 850 MB VORT 65 82 88 63 41 25 -13 5 77 123 176 342 382 LAND (KM) 72 98 104 42 -21 -116 -110 -66 155 69 295 232 0 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.8 18.9 20.8 23.6 27.6 32.5 37.6 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.4 87.2 87.8 88.4 89.3 89.7 88.7 85.1 79.6 74.9 72.6 70.8 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 36 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 577 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 105 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -31. -38. -41. -42. -42. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 14. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -7. -14. -20. -25. -25. -23. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -4. -13. -20. -25. -26. -25. -25. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.58 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.8% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)