* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 29 31 31 31 37 40 48 53 58 59 54 54 SHEAR DIR 182 196 204 212 211 209 225 231 245 241 246 226 193 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.0 25.7 23.6 13.3 5.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 137 138 139 135 119 116 100 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 6 5 7 7 5 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 58 58 55 50 44 40 42 48 52 50 53 43 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 3 3 5 9 4 22 20 9 32 -4 15 850 MB VORT 80 86 63 48 34 17 -5 21 47 84 106 129 130 LAND (KM) 59 97 134 149 138 87 111 30 28 416 547 195 27 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.2 18.2 20.1 22.6 25.1 29.2 34.6 41.8 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.8 86.1 86.5 86.9 86.8 86.2 84.5 81.4 76.4 70.0 66.1 64.7 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 38 31 28 24 49 42 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 87 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -31. -32. -31. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -19. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -20. -20. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-SEV 11/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 3.81 Prob of RI= 9.4% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)