* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 44 43 39 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 44 43 39 33 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 29 29 32 37 39 44 54 50 58 50 49 16 SHEAR DIR 193 195 200 203 202 218 225 250 243 241 237 238 216 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.2 26.0 24.8 23.4 15.7 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 137 138 139 132 119 109 99 75 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.8 -58.7 -59.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 57 53 50 43 42 44 48 61 54 52 51 45 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 1 4 6 9 19 24 8 -6 21 43 32 850 MB VORT 90 64 52 44 37 6 0 33 40 90 51 -33 -21 LAND (KM) 41 72 103 135 127 78 126 43 25 425 503 294 204 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 18.7 20.7 23.2 26.3 31.4 37.8 42.2 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.0 86.3 86.7 87.0 86.8 85.7 83.5 79.9 74.4 67.4 61.8 56.9 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 38 33 28 28 54 31 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 589 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 68 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -30. -35. -38. -37. -34. -32. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -19. -25. -28. -32. -36. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -14. -20. -26. -29. -34. -38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 3.97 Prob of RI= 11.4% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)