* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 38 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 38 33 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 31 31 39 40 45 52 51 66 73 65 43 17 SHEAR DIR 201 208 207 207 209 224 230 251 233 231 235 222 227 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 26.4 26.1 24.5 23.8 18.8 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 139 138 123 120 106 102 81 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -54.1 -52.9 -53.8 -56.1 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 7 6 5 2 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 55 47 44 43 44 47 53 51 41 41 45 41 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 2 5 6 15 10 28 32 61 43 11 850 MB VORT 61 48 42 40 29 -6 23 29 29 85 70 47 -22 LAND (KM) 101 131 160 122 69 99 -2 91 82 482 635 439 244 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.0 20.0 21.9 24.0 26.6 31.1 37.1 41.4 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.3 86.5 86.8 87.1 86.4 84.5 82.2 79.3 73.8 66.0 59.7 53.8 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 30 24 23 46 50 10 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -24. -32. -39. -44. -43. -42. -40. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -21. -29. -38. -42. -45. -49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -21. -30. -39. -44. -47. -51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 3.98 Prob of RI= 11.5% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)