* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 33 37 40 44 48 50 51 79 80 57 45 22 SHEAR DIR 206 211 207 209 216 225 245 238 235 232 224 212 191 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.4 26.6 26.4 23.6 16.7 7.8 4.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 141 142 134 125 123 100 76 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -54.3 -52.7 -55.2 -58.4 -60.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 7 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 46 45 45 45 49 51 43 35 34 51 49 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 4 7 10 14 27 20 11 0 57 13 27 22 850 MB VORT 49 39 33 18 0 13 8 18 25 90 99 42 -23 LAND (KM) 98 149 191 172 163 122 21 122 357 556 329 -1 176 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 20.7 22.4 24.4 27.3 33.2 41.8 46.9 49.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 84.8 82.2 79.7 76.5 70.5 62.0 55.8 51.0 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 32 28 32 59 38 13 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -25. -32. -40. -44. -42. -38. -36. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -27. -36. -43. -44. -44. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -29. -38. -45. -46. -45. -48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.14 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 3.56 Prob of RI= 6.4% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)