* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 34 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 34 31 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 33 40 41 40 45 46 56 67 76 72 65 48 SHEAR DIR 203 201 203 212 216 225 248 239 243 242 241 243 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 27.5 27.2 26.1 24.5 23.6 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 142 143 148 135 132 120 106 100 98 96 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -54.7 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 6 3 2 3 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 44 41 38 41 40 44 42 40 36 35 39 33 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 5 5 0 11 16 2 26 -3 27 50 39 19 850 MB VORT 34 18 -1 -16 -9 -5 6 32 21 36 3 -60 -63 LAND (KM) 35 91 148 207 262 212 -18 294 768 897 1133 1062 1027 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.9 22.2 25.0 28.1 30.8 33.0 35.1 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.3 85.4 85.3 85.1 84.0 81.4 77.4 72.4 68.0 63.7 59.6 55.8 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 46 45 49 63 41 26 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 81 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -26. -34. -42. -49. -57. -65. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -21. -29. -36. -44. -51. -58. -66. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.44 Scaled RI index= 3.29 Prob of RI= 3.8% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)