* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 33 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 33 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 33 37 38 36 37 43 45 51 58 58 68 67 SHEAR DIR 205 205 213 219 222 240 235 233 226 241 240 247 246 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 145 146 148 139 139 146 143 139 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 6 4 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 40 34 35 38 38 35 34 31 24 24 24 26 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 1 2 3 4 -3 10 20 14 8 9 24 7 850 MB VORT 16 -1 -4 -1 -1 -21 -4 -9 -42 -63 -79 -88 -79 LAND (KM) 59 110 161 216 272 252 33 99 317 444 606 736 892 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.6 21.7 22.8 23.1 23.7 24.4 25.0 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 84.6 84.5 84.5 84.4 83.6 81.2 77.5 73.3 69.7 66.9 64.6 62.9 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 51 56 58 65 49 37 39 39 23 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 76 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -42. -48. -55. -61. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -23. -30. -40. -50. -62. -73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -25. -32. -42. -52. -63. -74. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.43 Prob of RI= 4.9% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)