* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 33 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 33 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 39 39 38 35 37 47 48 49 42 48 44 59 SHEAR DIR 211 219 223 228 230 240 223 231 235 250 250 256 249 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 145 148 149 146 151 157 151 149 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 7 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 500-300 MB RH 38 36 39 37 37 34 30 26 25 26 23 21 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 7 8 4 8 11 15 7 5 2 1 11 850 MB VORT 9 4 6 2 -9 -14 -13 -43 -34 -59 -55 -56 -78 LAND (KM) 88 145 202 265 327 258 65 8 77 154 222 285 384 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.9 21.0 21.1 20.5 20.4 20.5 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.9 84.7 84.6 84.4 82.6 79.6 75.7 71.6 68.3 66.1 64.6 64.0 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 52 57 59 69 64 53 68 50 54 55 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -31. -39. -46. -52. -58. -63. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -18. -27. -35. -44. -53. -61. -70. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -21. -30. -38. -46. -54. -62. -72. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)