* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * GAMMA 11/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 36 37 35 35 32 36 41 46 48 49 42 42 40 SHEAR DIR 211 215 217 225 226 213 215 217 220 221 237 244 262 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 142 143 148 152 157 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 39 40 38 33 33 33 33 39 46 41 33 28 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 3 0 0 -3 -1 -1 8 2 0 7 2 850 MB VORT 2 7 10 1 -14 -26 -14 -3 -15 -11 -22 -31 -54 LAND (KM) 89 105 122 152 184 256 280 103 73 107 114 73 74 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.1 85.0 84.7 84.4 83.0 80.9 78.8 76.9 75.5 74.8 74.8 75.2 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 50 50 54 71 66 81 91 103 104 105 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 655 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -36. -45. -53. -59. -63. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -24. -32. -40. -47. -53. -58. -63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -9. -13. -18. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52. -57. -64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) GAMMA 11/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.89 Scaled RI index= 3.42 Prob of RI= 4.8% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)