* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 11/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 47 52 53 49 44 37 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 47 52 53 49 44 37 29 SHEAR (KTS) 32 33 37 35 32 30 27 19 53 55 47 27 17 SHEAR DIR 266 255 261 269 257 230 216 304 323 326 316 324 323 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.2 23.6 23.0 23.2 24.1 25.8 27.3 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 110 107 104 100 97 98 104 117 133 137 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -54.8 -55.1 -56.0 -54.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 7 8 500-300 MB RH 60 58 61 67 67 69 69 62 41 33 19 19 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 0 4 14 20 16 14 0 -83 -60 -15 -3 -4 850 MB VORT 59 75 97 118 150 206 247 208 153 132 111 87 55 LAND (KM) 2203 2193 2190 2154 2124 1977 1741 1584 1672 1996 1758 1595 1378 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.8 30.6 32.6 34.3 34.4 32.4 29.0 24.6 20.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 43.5 42.1 41.0 39.9 39.0 40.5 43.6 47.0 49.2 50.1 50.1 49.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 29 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 700 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -6. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 2. -5. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 23. 24. 21. 15. 8. 1. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 17. 22. 23. 19. 14. 7. -1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 11/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 25.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.11 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.02 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 2.78 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)